Commerce is undergoing a secular shift in how we transact.
Digital transactions are one proxy for this revolution.
Market moments that have our attention:
1.
Automating commerce for people,
and their AI agents
It’s insane that more transactions aren’t happening online. Ecommerce sales in 2024 accounted for only 16% of total sales. In the coming years, this number could cross 50+% with growth coming from new channels (e.g. agents, gaming, auto), and existing channels (e.g. social, marketplace, international). AI-driven agents are already handling more of the transaction load, and we expect this trend to accelerate.
Legacy commerce infrastructure is at risk of being replaced as the transaction layer changes and commerce gets more convenient and complex. Targets: vertical AI, supply chain, ad/mar tech, payments, and marketplaces.
2.
Boring and complex vertical AI
We see opportunity where industries are boring and problems complex. Competition is weak, incumbents are outdated, and the ‘prize’ is venture scale. Vertical AI at these intersections (e.g. ArcHouse, Simply Bail) show how focused solutions can dominate overlooked, tech-light markets. Targets: Vertical SAAS, Vertical AI
3.
Marketplaces that do more
We love marketplaces that use proprietary data capture to train AI that defends their business models. The next gen of marketplaces will include vertical AI, fintech, and consumer applications that support retention. The cold start problem is real, but the data moat makes dominant monopolies possible. Targets: Marketplaces
